Get High-Stakes Decisions Right

Get High-Stakes Decisions Right


The decision tree, by business school professors Hugh Courtney and Dan Lovallo and strategy consultant Carmina Clarke, offers five hypothetical scenarios McDonald’s executives might face, starting with the simple to the uncertain.

They all hinge on two important questions: Do I know what it takes to succeed? And can I predict the range and likelihood of different outcomes?

  • Scenario #1: McDonald’s needs to decide where to locate new US restaurants
  • Scenario #2: Bring a new sandwich to the US market
  • Scenario #3: Enter an emerging market for the first time
  • Scenario #4: McDonald’s wants to launch a completely new business model
  • Scenario #5: McDonald’s needs to respond to obesity concerns in the US, and the fast food backlash.


Related: How The Strategy Pyramid Will Help Bring Your Ideas To Life


Tracy Lee Nicol
Tracy-Lee Nicol is an experienced business writer and magazine editor. She was awarded a Masters degree with distinction from Rhodes university in 2010, and in the time since has honed her business acumen and writing skills profiling some of South Africa's most successful entrepreneurs, CEOs, franchisees and franchisors.Find her on Google+.