The USD/ZAR currency pair (US Dollar/South African rand) is closely correlated with the EUR/ZAR (Euro/South African rand) with an 83.9% correlation. Simply put, the performance of the USD and the EUR with respect to the ZAR are one and the same. When the USD or the EUR appreciates, we are likely to see similar trends taking place with respect to the USD/ZAR and the EUR/ZAR currency pairs.
As of Thursday, 17 August 2017, the USD/ZAR exchange rate was 13.169. The 52-week trading range for this currency pair is 12.298 on the low end and 14.748 on the high-end. 10 years ago, at the height of the global financial crisis (August 21, 2007), $1 was trading at R13.17040. The USD appreciated sharply against emerging market currencies, notably the ZAR, in the years following the crisis. Between 2007 and January 2016, the USD gained on the ZAR. It reached a high of R16.44437 on 14 January 2016, before retreating sharply to R12.43849 on 24 March 2017.
Unbeknownst to many millennials in South Africa, the ZAR was not always trading at its current levels. Before Jacob Zuma assumed the presidency, and gross malfeasance engulfed the South African economic system, the Rand was a force to be reckoned with in global financial markets.
South Africa was considered the bright star of emerging market economies in Africa. Gold, platinum, coal, iron ore, tourism and other factors helped to create a positive image of the South African economy.
Economic Malfeasance Impacts Credit Ratings
Enter the Gupta scandal, Nkandla, multiple successive votes of no-confidence in the president, and ongoing fears about nationalization, the exodus of multinational corporations, and a crumbling infrastructure – the result is evident in the Rand. The South African economy continues to absorb swelling numbers of illegal immigrants, many of whom are living in squatter camps where rising levels of ethnocentrism are brewing. A flare-up is imminent.
International credit ratings agencies have downgraded South Africa’s rating over time, with the following ratings and outlooks from major agencies:
- Moody’s assigned a Baa3 rating to South Africa with a negative outlook – June 9, 2017
- S&P assigned a BB + rating to South Africa with a negative outlook – April 3, 2017
- Fitch assigned a BB + rating with a stable outlook – April 7, 2017.
These credit ratings are extremely important to international investors says Weiss Finance professional, Sal Caputo, ‘They determine capital flows into South Africa. Investors, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds look towards credit ratings for their investment decisions in foreign countries. If we wind the clocks back to 1994, Fitch assigned a BB rating, Moody’s a Baa3 rating and S&P a BB rating to South Africa’s economy. While the ratings appear similar today, the sentiment (the outlook) is decidedly negative this time around.’
Pre-Global crisis, in 2006 the USD/ZAR was trading at 6.1392. Put into perspective, R100,000 would buy you $16,288.76, 11 years ago, and that same R100,000 is the equivalent of $7,588.17 today. These figures do not take into account the real money depreciation, or how much more you could have earned by investing that $16,288.76 over 11 years. The differences are dramatic. Inflation in South Africa is currently recorded at 5.1% year on year (June 2017).
This is good news in that it means the real purchasing power of the South African rand is not being adversely affected by rising prices. This is the lowest inflation rate for South Africa in 1.5 years. Conversely, the inflation rate in the United States for the 12 months ending July 2017 was measured at 1.7% – 3 times less than South Africa’s rate.
Clearly the value of the South African currency is being eroded away every year. The current interest rate at South African banks was measured at 6.75% on July 20, 2017. This means that investments in SA banks yield real money growth to capital. Provided inflation is kept in check, and the SA infrastructure is renovated, upgraded and maintained, good governance can help the SA economy to get back on track.
A Thought: In the 1960s, the South African rand was grand, as it traded at a mere R0.72 to the USD. Things have certainly reversed since then, but the Rainbow Nation has the ability to turn a new page and make the Rand proudly South African once again.
How Economic Crime Is Impacting Business In South Africa
77% of SA organisations have experienced economic crime and CEO’s and boards are increasingly being held accountable for economic crime.
South African organisations continue to report the highest instances of economic crime in the world with economic crime reaching its highest level over the past decade, according to PwC’s biennial Global Economic Crime Survey.
South African organisations that have experienced economic crime is now at a staggering 77%, followed in second place by Kenya (75%), and thirdly France (71%). With half of the top ten countries who reported economic crime coming from Africa, the situation at home is more than dire.
The Global Economic Crime and Fraud Survey examines over 7200 respondents from 123 countries, of which 282 were from South Africa.
The rise of economic crime
Trevor White PwC Partner, Forensic Services and South Africa Survey Leader, says: “ Economic crime continues to disrupt business, with this year’s results showing a steep incline in reported instances of economic crime. At 77% South Africa’s rate of reported economic crime remains significantly higher than the global average rate of 49%. However, this year saw an unprecedented growth in the global trend, with a 36% period-on-period increase since 2016.”
Related: PwC Focus On Sugar Tax
Economic crime in South Africa is now at the highest level over the past decade. It is also alarming to note that 6% of executives in South Africa (Africa 5% and Global 7%) simply did not know whether their respective organisations were being affected by economic crime or not.
While the overall rate of economic crime reported was indeed the highest for South Africa, the period-on-period rate of increase for South Africa and Africa as a whole was below that of our American, Asian and European counterparts.
Global indicators of a rise in economic crime
From a regional perspective, the biggest increase in experiences of economic crime occurred in Latin America, where there was a 25% increase since 2016 to 53% in respondents who indicated they had experienced economic crime. The US was a close second with a 17% increase over 2016 to 54% of respondents, while Asia Pacific and Eastern Europe experienced increases of 16% and 14%, respectively.
Asset misappropriation continues to remain the most prevalent form of economic crime reported by 45% of respondents globally and 49% of South African respondents. While the instances of reported cybercrime showed a small decrease in the South African context (29% in 2018 versus 32% in 2016), it retained its second place in the global rankings (31%) albeit at a lower rate of occurrence than 2016.
One of the new categories of economic crimes was that of “fraud committed by the consumer”.
It is the second most reported crime in South Africa at 42% and takes third place globally at 29%. This was followed closely by procurement fraud (39% in South Africa versus 22% globally). This indicates that the entire supply chain in SouthAfrica is fraught with criminality.
Related: PwC: Pria Chetty
When combined with the high instances of bribery and corruption reported (affecting more than a third of organisations at 34%), the resultant erosion in value from the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is startling. Accounting fraud, which is usually perpetrated by senior management and results in the largest losses, increased from 20% to 22%.
Accountability of the board
Accountability for fraud and economic crime has moved into the executive suite, with the C-Suite increasingly taking responsibility, and the fall, when economic crime and fraud occur.”
The survey shows that almost every serious incident of fraud has been brought to the attention of senior management (95%).
85% of South African respondents indicated their organization had a formal business ethics and compliance programme in place.
In addition, 20% of local respondents indicated that the CEO (who is part of the first line of defence) has primary responsibility for the organisation’s ethics and compliance programmes, and is therefore more instrumental to the detection of fraud and the response to it.
PwC Focus On Sugar Tax
The proposed sugar levy is unlikely to make sizeable dent in fiscal deficit, but the Sugar Beverage Industry is offering a helping hand to reduce obesity.
In 2016, the National Treasury announced a Sugar Beverage Levy (SBL) on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) scheduled to take effect April 2018. The aim of the levy was to prevent and control obesity in South Africa, but key industry players also viewed it as a potentially significant new source of revenue that could help plug the growing fiscal deficit.
The fiscal deficit has been widening as National Treasury faces slow economic growth and a shrinking tax base. Initially estimated at 3.1% of GDP, fiscal deficit projections increased to 4.3% of GDP in October last year.[i]
However, official data suggests the deficit already reached R195 billion in the first 8 months of the 2018/19 fiscal year, so it could amount to approximately R250 billion, thereby exceeding Finance Minister Gigaba’s October projections by 25%.
The levy has undergone various changes since it was first announced.
When the levy takes effect in April this year, it will amount to 2.1 cents per gram of sugar per 100ml, above 4 grams per 100ml.
This is down from an initial 2.29 cents per gram of sugar with no exempted amount.[ii]
Our estimations suggest the tax burden is approximately 10% given current levels of sugar content, down from approximately 20% previously. In addition, industry has recently reacted to the news of the SBL, reducing the sugar content of popular beverages by including non-nutritive sweeteners.
In addition to efforts to reformulate, the industry introduced smaller bottle sizes to curb excessive sugar consumption and limit the excise tax burden.
SBL excise revenue estimations
We estimated that in a scenario in which the beverages industry makes no change to the sugar content of SSBs, the levy would result in an estimated R1.5 billion loss in sales revenue and a R 1.4 billion excise revenue gain for government.
However, a reformulation by industry would result in a lower loss in sales revenues of only R1.07bn and lower than expected excise revenue gain for government of R990mn.
Given the estimated fiscal budget deficit of up to R250bn, additional revenues of between R990mn and R1.4bn are unlikely to make a significant dent in plugging the deficit and could support the assertion that the levy will focus on curbing sugar consumption rather than providing significant additional revenue inflows.
In our quantitative analysis of the proposed tax on SSBs, we use the PwC Economic Impact Assessment Model to derive the potential impacts, based on a 10% sales reduction calculation due to potential excise driven price changes.
Although excise revenues are expected to increase, other tax revenue streams are likely to experience a decline. Not considering excise impacts, the prospective tax revenue loss stemming from reduced sales revenues and showing in lower VAT, corporate income tax (CIT) and personal income tax (PIT) could range between R363 million and R518 million in the reformulation and non-reformulation scenarios, respectively.
Therefore, the net impact on estimated tax revenue combining the implications for excise tax, VAT, CIT and PIT revenue would only range between R631 million and R856 million, subject to which scenario is implemented.
It is unclear whether the SBL levy will assist in reducing consumers’ sugar consumption. However, industry facilitates lower sugar consumption by reducing bottle sizes and through reformulation.
Smaller sizes nudge consumers to lower sugar consumption
In addition to reformulating popular SSBs, the beverages industry has altered the size of the 500ml buddy bottle to 440ml, potentially nudging consumers to reducing their sugar consumption.
The move to the 440ml bottle represents a 12%[iii] reduction in size and means that sugar content fell from 53 grams in the 500ml bottle to 46.6 grams in the 440ml bottle.
The implementation of the new levy could still result in an approximately 61 cent increase in the price of the 440ml bottle.
It remains to be seen how South Africans will react to the current and impending price change of SSBs and if the SBL can indeed assist in reducing obesity. It is clear that monitoring and evaluation are key tools to help government and industry understand the effectiveness of this initiative to prevent and control obesity in South Africa.
- [i] Treasury, 2017. Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. [Online] Available: http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/mtbps/2017/speech/speech.pdf [Accessed 08 February 2018]
- [ii] SARS, 2017. SARS to collect for sugar tax (SBL) from 1 April 2018. [Online] Available: http://www.sars.gov.za/Media/MediaReleases/Pages/15-December-2017—SARS-to-collect-for-sugar-tax-from-1-April-2018-.aspx [Accessed on 06 February 2018]
- [iii] PwC calculations
What It Will Really Take For South Africa’s Businesses To Scale And Create Jobs
It is the “low-hanging fruit” of scaling up South Africa’s established SME businesses that we believe is at the core of how we can grow this economy further.
Much has been said about the potential of SMEs to drive job creation and economic growth for South Africa. Our unemployment rate is at 26.7% – an astonishing figure that speaks volumes about the dire need for job creation. On the back of this, we are seeing increasing amounts of money being channeled into incubators and the funding of startup companies.
Although important, the starting of new businesses, unless they are completely innovative, well-timed and highly scalable, will not provide us with much-needed quick wins on our path to job creation and economic growth. It is the “low-hanging fruit” of scaling up South Africa’s established SME businesses that we believe is at the core of how we can grow this economy further.
The state of established businesses in South Africa
Established businesses that already employ 10-20 people have a working product, willing buyers and a proven business model and with some modifications, increased guidance and adequate management, they have the potential to increase their number of employees significantly as they scale up. However, a 2016/2017 report by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) in partnership with the University of Cape Town found that the rate of established businesses in South Africa has declined by an incredible 26% since 2015.
In fact, South Africa had one of the lowest established business rates of all the economies that participated in the GEM 2016 study (ranked 61st out of 65 economies). This, the report says, “paints a bleak picture of the SMME sector’s potential to contribute meaningfully to job creation, economic growth and more equal income distribution.” While we should not neglect the starting of new businesses, scaling up established businesses will provide young people with much needed experience to ensure that when they eventually start their own businesses, they may have greater chances of success.
How to increase the proportion of established businesses that scale up
Have a clear vision for your business
When we as business coaches work with established businesses that are scaling up, we make sure to start with the founder as their attitudes and desires determine how far the business will go. Scaling up an established business begins with a clear vision. Often, we find that the businesses owners don’t have a clear vision of where they want to take their business, and without a vision, it’s very difficult to scale.
Determine why your business exists
Linked to a clear vision, business owners need to have a strong purpose that answers the question of why they want to scale. Some business owners often see their business as a vehicle that provides them with an income, rather than the business serving a bigger purpose to impact an industry or the broader society. As a result, they often stop short of developing the full potential of their businesses.
Be willing to learn and seek help where needed
Business owners also need to have a willingness to learn. Being entrepreneurs, they often have a definitive view of the world and how it should work, which drives them to create something that they believe needs to exist (a new business venture). A risk to these strongly held views and high levels of confidence is that entrepreneurs potentially won’t open themselves up to new ideas, or to being challenged that some of their beliefs and views may, in fact, be holding their businesses back.
Business owners need to realise that they may not have all the skills to scale their business. I’ve found that entrepreneurs tend to be strong in customer service, innovation and sales, and are often weaker in people management and attention to detail – skills that become a lot more critical at the point of scaling the business.
Other areas of importance in scaling up
There are other critical areas that businesses need to address in scaling up but dealing with the founder is most critical. Strategy is one, cash flow is another, as is the question of hiring/finding and developing key talent. I will be unpacking these and more at the upcoming Business Day TV SME Summit on 8 March; and with increasing efforts by government to address the unemployment crises through platforms like the Jobs Summit announced in the State of the Nation Address, we hope that more conversations are had around harnessing the job creation power of established businesses that manage to scale up quickly and sustainably.
Start-up Advice2 months ago
9 Quotes Every Entrepreneur Should Live By
Lessons Learnt2 months ago
15 Wise Insights From 15 Entrepreneurial Icons
Company Posts2 months ago
Enhance Your Entrepreneurial Flair With An Online Postgraduate Diploma From The University Of Pretoria
Personal Finance2 months ago
If You Think These 5 Things, You’ll Never Get Rich By The Time You’re 30