It is notoriously difficult to predict movements in financial markets with any degree of accuracy. In fact, no one can predict with any statistical significance how the price of any financial instrument will behave over a given future time-frame.
In many ways, the prediction of movements in financial markets is similar to another time-series system that is notoriously difficult to predict: The weather. However, there is more predictability in weather patterns, due to seasonal certainty, compared to financial markets where there is very little certainty in what will happen tomorrow, never mind in a year’s time.
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The difficulty in predicting returns leads to some puzzling issues in modern empirical finance, especially since many of these modern processes rely on assumptions of future returns. Most notably, asset allocation is a process that distributes funds to different asset classes based on the long term returns the asset classes generate above a defined risk-free asset (in most cases the prevailing cash return and sometimes a rate of inflation).
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a large pension fund turned to several of the best minds in academia in an attempt to uncover why they had suffered such severe losses. They contracted with Andrew Ang (Columbia Business School), William Goetzmann (Yale) and Stephen Schaefer (London Business School)*, who produced a journal paper on the fund which, as one may imagine, is somewhat technical and includes an extensive review on the Efficient Market Hypothesis. However, one of the key conclusions they reached is that even though the fund was well diversified across asset classes and invested with around 70 of the world’s top money managers; it was not diversified from a risk perspective.
The underlying managers were taking similar types of risks and exposing the fund, on an aggregate level, to large bets on certain risk factors which came under significant pressure during the financial crisis.
This leads to some critical thinking around the returns generated by managers and what risks are being taken with investors’ assets.
Most asset managers are intent on outperforming a specific benchmark, and they do this by utilising a predefined investment process, often referred to as the asset manager’s style.
A good example of style, ubiquitous in the equity market, is the Value philosophy which was conceptualised and formalised largely by Benjamin Graham and made famous by Warren Buffet. Most academics and market practitioners agree that value strategies outperform market capitalisation weighted indices over time.
The critical question is whether or not managers running Value styles are able to outperform, due to skill or simply because they are taking a different set of risks in their portfolios when compared to accepted market benchmarks. This, in some sense, makes the active versus passive investment debate somewhat blurred, as suddenly one may not be able to compare them reliably since they are arguably different from a risk perspective.
So much so that many consultants in the international market are now comparing active managers with benchmarks that are more representative of the risks that the managers are taking; leading to the emergence of the Smart Beta industry. Smart Beta indices utilise specific risk or fundamental factors in their construction process, and deviate from the pure market capitalisation weighted approach that is traditionally utilised in the industry.
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Although returns themselves are extremely difficult to predict, it seems that by allocating to differentiated risks, one is able to generate a statistically significant excess return or “Alpha”, over market capitalisation weighted indices.
Curiously, there are several styles that lead to an excess return expectation. Therefore portfolios should be constructed in such a way that they are weighted across diverse risk factors, as allocating solely to any one risk factor, no matter how diverse the number of managers, may lead to significant losses in asset value, due to risk concentration.
St John Bunkell, from Absa Alternative Asset Management believes that it is possible to enhance “Smart Beta investing” further by constructing portfolios that target Alpha over Smart Beta indices.
This is achieved by allocating to diverse risk styles, specifically utilising value and momentum strategies which he sees as two of the strongest empirical regularities in finance. He further asserts that, although there seems to be very little ability to predict Beta (general market risks and returns), there is some predictability in Alpha (relative return of stocks against indices).
Combining these two strong excess return drivers (value and momentum) within a very specific risk framework, as well as utilising fundamental and mathematical definitions of value and momentum, the Absa Alternative Asset Management team has created a unique fund range, referred to as the “Smart Alpha” fund range. The most critical component of these funds is to ensure that they continuously take the correct level of risk for the investor, as too much or too little risk may have detrimental consequences.
The investment strategies utilised in these new unit trust finds were previously only available to institutional investors, but are now available to the retail market.
If you are interested in these Unit Trusts or have any enquiries, please call 0860 111 456 or email email@example.com
Strive for the exceptional. Prosper.
*Andrew Ang, William N. Goetzmann and Stephen M. Schaefer, Evaluation of Active Management of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund – Global, December 14, 2009
With Hundreds Of Franchise Options Out There, Choose The One You Can Trust
If you’re looking to invest in a business venture that offers you years of experience in the industry, the trust and loyalty of its customers, and franchise support from an expert team – then Hi-Q is the one for you.
What you’ll become a part of
Since opening their doors in 1999, Hi-Q has gone from strength to strength, growing a humble three store enterprise into an extensive 130-store franchise network with a unique multi-product and multi-services automotive offering.
Hi-Q’s approach to business is centred around being ‘the one you can trust’ to their customers, their suppliers and their franchisees.
“That has always been the key driver in everything we do,” says Sean Harrison, Hi-Q’s Managing Director. “For example, when it comes to our customers, they need to know they can rely on us to put their safety first.
That we’ll always strive to offer them expert, friendly service and top of the range products, while also keeping up-to-date with the latest technologies and advancements in our field.”
An acclaimed and awarded brand
Hi-Q has again and again proven themselves to be a leader in the industry.
They’ve been voted South Africa’s No.1 tyre retailer for eight consecutive years (2010 – 2017) by consumers in the Ask Africa Icon Brands Survey, the biggest of its kind in Africa – a clear indication that they are respected and trusted by their customers.
Hi-Q Franchisees all have the support of an expert and knowledgeable team with years of experience in the industry, who are available to guide them on their business venture. This includes areas of business such as marketing/promotional, commercial, organisational structure, tools and equipment, sales and more.
Franchisees also have access to various skills training opportunities for members of their team.
Hi-Q is invested in providing their network with the tools needed to thrive and grow in an ever-challenging market.
Relationship with Goodyear
Hi-Q has the support and backing of international tyre of multinational premium tyre manufacturer, Goodyear, and its full value proposition. This means access to incredible promotional and marketing opportunities in partnership with the brand.
Hi-Q has embarked on an extensive expansion plan and have identified areas of opportunity to extend their Franchise footprint growth countrywide.
You’ll find more information on our website www.hiq.co.za We’d like to invite those who are interested to become part of our team to contact 011 663 2431 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Get The Edge This Winter
Five short courses from WITS kicking off in July will give you the competitive edge.
From Gauteng’s most trusted provider of the best learning experiences, come five WITS-curated courses starting in July 2019. Use the longer, colder days to curl up with a “good book” and emerge from winter with a new edge.
There are three online short courses offered via the WITS Digital Campus, starting 15 July.
Managing Labour Relations
This 10 week course will equip you with sound knowledge of South Africa’s complex labour landscape and an understanding of your legal rights as an employee or employer.
You will also learn skills for navigating employer / employee relationships successfully, and get tools for managing disputes effectively. There are eight modules, covered in online lectures over eight weeks, requiring a commitment of five to seven hours per week. The exam is in week 10.
Logistics and Supply Chain Management Practice
This 10 week course is packed with practical and theoretical information to help retail managers, supply chain supervisors, stock controllers and even CEOs drive efficiencies in the value chain.
It covers everything from improving exporting transportation, warehousing, order processing and procurement to financial management and managing waste. There are eight modules, covered in online lectures over eight weeks, requiring a commitment of five to seven hours per week. The exam is in week 10.
Applied Digital Marketing
We operate in an increasingly digital world and traditional marketing must include digital aspects and channels to be relevant.
This 10 week course will teach you to think digital, talk digital and deliver effective digital campaigns to elevate marketing and brand-building initiatives. You will learn to conceptualise and implement successful digital marketing strategies that drive customer acquisition, optimise your digital footprint and deliver business results.
There are eight modules, covered in online lectures over eight weeks, requiring a commitment of five to seven hours per week. The exam is in week 10.
Comprehensive onsite courses in July include:
Real Estate Investment Analysis
This intensive five day course is for people who have been introduced to the real estate discipline at NQF 4 and NQF 5 levels. It is designed to provide higher level, more focused training as well as tools for analysing different types of real estate investments at the individual asset level, and measuring investment performance.
The course will benefit property practitioners who do not have property degrees; past graduates of SAPOA programmes in different aspects of the real estate business and people from different disciplinary backgrounds considering entering the profession. The course takes place over five days from 1 to 5 July 2019.
Advanced Performance Management
Presented by the School of Accountancy together with Wits Enterprise, this course is designed to prepare students for the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) Professional level exams.
On completion of this course, you will be able to:
- Use strategic planning and control models to plan and monitor organisational performance
- Assess and identify key external influences on organisational performance
- Apply strategic performance measurement techniques in evaluating and improving organisational performance
- Advise on business performance evaluation as well as recognize vulnerability to corporate failure
The course will run from 15 July to 22 October 2019.
For more information on registering for any of these courses, criteria for registering, and costs, visit.
This article was originally posted on Entrepreneur.com/sa.
The Importance of Outsourcing Your Payroll
One of an organisation’s biggest overheads is that of salaries and wages. And yet, if these are not processed on time, it can negatively impact staff morale and create the impression that the company is not financially stable.
For a small business, payroll is normally the responsibility of an accountant or bookkeeper, but even administrators can sometimes be roped in to do the job, even though they have no expertise in the matter. This is where the value of outsourcing your payroll comes in.
When should you outsource?
- If you want to grow your business but are not aware of ongoing legislative changes that could pose a risk to your company, then it is better to get professionals to assist.
- Accountants and bookkeepers are not specialists and do not keep up with the compliance environment. If you outsource your payroll, you enable them to focus their core duties and not get bogged down by legislative complexities.
How to choose an outsourced service provider
Understandably, payroll is a sensitive subject dealing with highly confidential information.
This is often the last thing a small business owner wants to outsource. It is therefore vital that the company does its homework and researches the potential outsourcing partner thoroughly.
Instead of going with the first available service provider or the cheapest one, here are some questions to ask:
- Is the service provider a one-man band and, if so, what backup resources are available?
- Is the service provider a recognised payroll provider belonging to a professional body?
- Do they have the necessary training and skills on payroll?
- What does the service provider do to ensure it stays up to date with legislation?
- How secure is the payroll data and can the service provider take on historic data?
- How easy is it to recover your payroll data in the event of a disaster?
- What value-adds can the service provider offer? These can include anything from leave management and third-party payments, to employee self-service, time and attendance management, and any other related human resource service.
- Can they process salaries and/or wages hourly, weekly, fortnightly, or monthly?
- Can the service provider accommodate your growth requirements if you open new branches?
- Is the service provider able to assist with payrolls in other African countries, manage their currencies, and deal with their regulatory environments?
- What processes are in place to ensure the timeous processing of payrolls?
The advantages of outsourcing your payroll
One of the most obvious benefits of going the outsourcing route is freeing up your resources to focus on your core strategic objectives. This ensures you provide quality of service and control costs while an experienced partner takes care of your payroll.
Here are a few other benefits:
- Reduce operating costs.
- Statutory compliance and consistent service delivery.
- Access to the latest technology, as well as skilled and dedicated payroll resources.
- Access to a secure, risk-free and confidential payroll environment.
- Increased flexibility and responsiveness.
- Streamlined internal processes and procedures.
This article was originally posted on Entrepreneur.com/sa.