It is notoriously difficult to predict movements in financial markets with any degree of accuracy. In fact, no one can predict with any statistical significance how the price of any financial instrument will behave over a given future time-frame.
In many ways, the prediction of movements in financial markets is similar to another time-series system that is notoriously difficult to predict: The weather. However, there is more predictability in weather patterns, due to seasonal certainty, compared to financial markets where there is very little certainty in what will happen tomorrow, never mind in a year’s time.
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The difficulty in predicting returns leads to some puzzling issues in modern empirical finance, especially since many of these modern processes rely on assumptions of future returns. Most notably, asset allocation is a process that distributes funds to different asset classes based on the long term returns the asset classes generate above a defined risk-free asset (in most cases the prevailing cash return and sometimes a rate of inflation).
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a large pension fund turned to several of the best minds in academia in an attempt to uncover why they had suffered such severe losses. They contracted with Andrew Ang (Columbia Business School), William Goetzmann (Yale) and Stephen Schaefer (London Business School)*, who produced a journal paper on the fund which, as one may imagine, is somewhat technical and includes an extensive review on the Efficient Market Hypothesis. However, one of the key conclusions they reached is that even though the fund was well diversified across asset classes and invested with around 70 of the world’s top money managers; it was not diversified from a risk perspective.
The underlying managers were taking similar types of risks and exposing the fund, on an aggregate level, to large bets on certain risk factors which came under significant pressure during the financial crisis.
This leads to some critical thinking around the returns generated by managers and what risks are being taken with investors’ assets.
Most asset managers are intent on outperforming a specific benchmark, and they do this by utilising a predefined investment process, often referred to as the asset manager’s style.
A good example of style, ubiquitous in the equity market, is the Value philosophy which was conceptualised and formalised largely by Benjamin Graham and made famous by Warren Buffet. Most academics and market practitioners agree that value strategies outperform market capitalisation weighted indices over time.
The critical question is whether or not managers running Value styles are able to outperform, due to skill or simply because they are taking a different set of risks in their portfolios when compared to accepted market benchmarks. This, in some sense, makes the active versus passive investment debate somewhat blurred, as suddenly one may not be able to compare them reliably since they are arguably different from a risk perspective.
So much so that many consultants in the international market are now comparing active managers with benchmarks that are more representative of the risks that the managers are taking; leading to the emergence of the Smart Beta industry. Smart Beta indices utilise specific risk or fundamental factors in their construction process, and deviate from the pure market capitalisation weighted approach that is traditionally utilised in the industry.
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Although returns themselves are extremely difficult to predict, it seems that by allocating to differentiated risks, one is able to generate a statistically significant excess return or “Alpha”, over market capitalisation weighted indices.
Curiously, there are several styles that lead to an excess return expectation. Therefore portfolios should be constructed in such a way that they are weighted across diverse risk factors, as allocating solely to any one risk factor, no matter how diverse the number of managers, may lead to significant losses in asset value, due to risk concentration.
St John Bunkell, from Absa Alternative Asset Management believes that it is possible to enhance “Smart Beta investing” further by constructing portfolios that target Alpha over Smart Beta indices.
This is achieved by allocating to diverse risk styles, specifically utilising value and momentum strategies which he sees as two of the strongest empirical regularities in finance. He further asserts that, although there seems to be very little ability to predict Beta (general market risks and returns), there is some predictability in Alpha (relative return of stocks against indices).
Combining these two strong excess return drivers (value and momentum) within a very specific risk framework, as well as utilising fundamental and mathematical definitions of value and momentum, the Absa Alternative Asset Management team has created a unique fund range, referred to as the “Smart Alpha” fund range. The most critical component of these funds is to ensure that they continuously take the correct level of risk for the investor, as too much or too little risk may have detrimental consequences.
The investment strategies utilised in these new unit trust finds were previously only available to institutional investors, but are now available to the retail market.
If you are interested in these Unit Trusts or have any enquiries, please call 0860 111 456 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
Strive for the exceptional. Prosper.
*Andrew Ang, William N. Goetzmann and Stephen M. Schaefer, Evaluation of Active Management of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund – Global, December 14, 2009
Organisational Design Disruptions Do Not Occur In A Vacuum: Future Business Models
What is the shape of the world in which models need to operate and how do they come together to build future value?
In today’s ever-changing world, organisations are using a disruptive business model design to build unique approaches to creating value and organisations that are ready for the future.
At all scales, from micro-enterprise to multinational, operating in multiple settings and contexts, rethinking business models has become one of definite ways of offering customers something truly better than what already exists.
To ensure sustainable business growth, businesses need to navigate modern economic development and societal issues and in so doing articulate what meaningful, inclusive and enduring value looks like. In the past, a linear approach to business model design may have sufficed – inputs enter a logical process that creates outputs of value.
Today, to truly deliver a value proposition that can flourish, an understanding of the way that complex adaptive systems come together to create both outputs and outcomes is required. ACCA identified12 characteristics that organisations are combining as they build new business models. The full model and characteristics can be read here.
The accountancy profession is well placed to support the growth of business models of the future that help build resilient, inclusive and prosperous societies, by leading in strategic roles. In order to be ready to make the most of these opportunities professional accountants will demand new skills. Financial acumen, technical knowledge and ethical judgement are attributes that the accountancy profession can uniquely bring to support business model innovation across the three spheres of value proposition, value creation and value capture.
But to navigate the contours of a changing economy, new mindsets are required. These include the ability to:
- think like a system
- understand how to capture and assess new sources of value
- build creative capabilities to think differently and problem solve
- adopt a long-term mindset.
Business models of the future: Systems, convergence and characteristics attempts to answer fundamental questions; why does business model innovation matter? What is the shape of the world in which models need to operate and how do they come together to build future value?
An Introduction To COID Registration And The Letter Of Good Standing
Company Partners is a leading COID Registration Service Provider in South Africa. They also assist Companies to obtain a Letter of Good Standing from COIDA.
What is COIDA?
The Compensation for Occupational Injuries and Diseases Act (Act 130 of 1993) replaced the “Workmen’s Compensation Act” (Act No. 30 of 1941), and was amended in 1997.
The Compensation Fund provides compensation for occupational injuries or diseases sustained or contracted by employees in the course and scope of their employment, or their dependents for death resulting from such injuries or disease, and to pay reasonable medical expenses incurred.
Who must register with COID?
According to prescription, anyone who employs one or more part- or full time workers must register with the Compensation Fund and pay annual assessment fees. The Compensation Fund is a trust fund that is controlled by the Compensation Commissioner and employer contributes to the Compensation Fund. The Commissioner is appointed to administer the Fund and approve claims lodge by employees or their dependants.
An employer must register with COID within seven days after the day on which he employs his first employee. An employer must register with the Commissioner by submitting Form W.As.2 with the particulars required therein to the Commissioner.
During COID registration copies of the following documentation should be included:
- the registration certificate from the Register of Companies if they are a company or closed corporation;
- or their ID document, if they are sole owners of the business.
What are assessment fees?
The annual assessment fee is of an employer is based on their employee’s earnings and the risks associated with the type of work or profession. Before 31 March each year, all employers (including contractors) must submit a statement (return) of earnings reflecting amount paid to all their workers from the beginning of March to the end of February.
Assessment tariffs, reviewed annually, are based on the risks related to a particular type of work.
Payment of assessments
- Employers must pay within 30 days of receiving the notice of assessment;
- Employers must apply in writing to settle assessments in installments (not exceeding 12 months);
- 20% of the outstanding balance due is required upfront before instalment arrangements can be applied for;
- Should the instalment fall overdue, the full amount becomes due and payable immediately.
Failure to comply may result in:
- Penalty can be imposed for late submission of ROE (Sect 83(2) – 10%);
- Estimations will be done if no returns (ROE) are submitted (Sect 83(6)(a);
- Penalty on non-payment of assessments (Sect 87(1) – 10%);
- Interest on late payment of assessment (prevailing prime rate);
- Penalty for late reporting of accidents
- A penalty is imposed where an employee meets an accident / death and employer is not registered with the Compensation Fund (not exceeding full compensation payable to the employee (Sect 87(2)(a))
- An employer who fails to comply with a provision of this section shall be guilty of an offence – Sect 81(3)
Contractors and sub-contractors:
- Contractors and sub-contractors must register with the Compensation Fund and pay assessments;
- Failure to comply with the COID Act by the sub-contractor will make the mandatory or main contractor to be responsible for any claims from the sub-contractor’s employees (thus the need for a letter of good standing);
- The contractor may recover any such payments directly from the sub-contractor.
Letter of Good Standing:
The Letter of Good Standing is a certificate issued by the Compensation Fund to verify that a business actually exists, has paid all its statutory dues, has met all filing requirements and, therefore, is authorised to operate.
Conditions when applying for a letter of good standing:
- Employer must be registered with the Fund as per section 80 of the COID Act,
- Employer must have submitted all returns of earnings as per section 82 0f the COID Act,
- Employer must be fully assessed as per section 83 of the COID Act,
- Employer must have paid/ settled all outstanding debt as per section 86 of the COID Act.
- Employers that have entered into an instalment arrangement will only be issued with a letter of good standing on a month‐to‐month basis.
Related: Register A Company In South Africa
What happens if an employee is injured?
The amount of compensation paid to you, depends on how much you were earning when you got injured or diagnosed. If you’ve stopped working by the time a disease is diagnosed, the compensation will be worked out according to what you would’ve been earning.
Types of compensation:
Medical costs: All your medical expenses will be paid for up to 2 years, from the date of the accident or the diagnosis of the disease. You are free to choose a medical service provider you want to consult with. All medical accounts and reports should be submitted to the Commissioner.
Temporary disability: When you’re unable to work or can’t do all your work because of an injury or disease.
All medical expenses are also paid if the medical accounts are submitted to the Commissioner.
You can claim compensation for temporary disability for 1 year. This can be extended to 2 years, after which the Commissioner may decide that the condition is permanent and grant compensation on the basis of permanent disability.
Permanent disability: A permanent disability is an injury or illness that you will never recover from. The seriousness of the disability will determine whether you’ll never be able to work again or whether you’ll find work more difficult. If the disability is more than 30% disability, you will get paid a monthly pension. The size of the pension depends on what your wages were and on the seriousness of the disability. If the disability is 30% or less, you’ll get paid a lump sum. The lump sum payment is a once-off payment.
Death benefits: Burial expenses will be paid and the spouse of the deceased and children under the age of 18 (including illegitimate, adopted and step-children) are entitled to compensation. If a family member that earns money to support the family (breadwinner) is killed by an occupational injury or disease, dependants can claim from the fund.
Established in 2006, Company Partners guarantees that the services they offer meet the standards of the best in the industry. Over 30 full-time Consultants offer services and standards of the highest quality.
Look To The Future
By protecting your employees, their future and their income, you’re also protecting your business says Walter van der Merwe, CEO of Fedgroup Life.
It’s proven that staff members perform better when you show them how valued they are. But, investing in your staff members’ futures goes above and beyond the bottom line.
Staff members value recognition for the contributions they make to the business. However, this does not necessarily need to take the form of financial rewards or incentives. As an employer, you can demonstrate your employees’ value to the firm through appropriate insurance cover in the form of comprehensive employee benefits, which show that you’ve considered their long-term wellbeing and that of their family.
Of course, there is a financial commitment on the part of the employer to contribute towards insurance cover, but this goes towards the future prosperity of staff members, rather than an immediate financial benefit. Employee benefits offer security against the possibility that something detrimental will happen, and in instances where the benefit is needed, will have a lasting effect on their lives.
Ensuring that staff members have the financial means to get the best standard of medical care and treatment following injury or illness, will increase the likelihood that they will make a full recovery, and within a shorter period of time. This will enable them to possibly return to work sooner, with full capacity to continue contributing meaningfully to the business and adding value. In this way, employee benefits demonstrate to staff members that they are a significant and considered part of the business, not only at the present point in time, but also for the long term, and they also ensure a degree of business continuity — particularly key employees.
Loss of income
The biggest risk for every employee is a loss of income. Whether their incapacitation results from an injury or illness, an inability to generate an income to support their lifestyle and their family will severely impact an employee’s quality of life. This loss of financial security is therefore the most consequential risk that should be protected against through appropriate forms of insurance, such as lump sum or annuity income protection products.
Another pertinent risk that business owners should address is the need for adequate life cover. Should an employee, who is possibly the primary breadwinner of a family, pass away, their surviving dependents may be left destitute without their financial support. Employee benefits that include a life insurance component will ensure the financial wellbeing of family members left behind in the event of an employee’s untimely death.
Another important risk factor to consider is the threat of chronic or severe illness, and the high costs generally associated with treatment. As employees age they become more susceptible to various types of illnesses. In instances where they fall chronically ill, they require the financial means to cover their medical costs, and generally require time away from work to recover. This is why dread disease or critical illness cover is another vital component of a comprehensive employee benefits scheme.
Choosing the right provider
When structuring employee benefits there are certain principles that should be applied, regardless of the size of company, or the income of the staff and their socio-economic circumstances.
Foremost among these is the selection of an employee benefits provider, along with the appropriate products and the associated cost implications. This role is best fulfilled by qualified, experienced and independent financial advisors who can offer unbiased advice. These trained and certified experts are able to advise employers on how best to support their staff members through the implementation of suitable employee benefit schemes by recommending the most appropriate solution structure, based on factors such as the gender, age, role and income of employees, and their financial responsibilities. This information helps advisors to select the best mix of products that offer suitable cover to meet the unique needs of the employer and their employees, while also considering affordability.
From a personal perspective, every employee gets peace of mind knowing they are protected should they no longer be able to work, or get sick, and that there are financial provisions in place for their family should they pass away. While they contribute a small premium, they will receive an outsized financial benefit should they claim in comparison to the immediate cost.
As it relates to the business, providing comprehensive employee benefits positions the company as an employer of choice, because the organisation shows that it cares for its staff. It also demonstrates that the employer considers their staff to be valuable, which is a powerful means to attract and retain the best talent.
Protect the future
The human psyche is hardwired to choose instant gratification over receiving a potentially greater reward or benefit sometime in the future. People generally tend to discount the value of rewards they’ll receive in the distant future due to a disconnect between what the present self believes will benefit the future self. In this model there is an opportunity cost involved in relation to what someone could afford now by rather spending the insurance premium on items or services that satisfy their more immediate needs.
This is the fundamental reason why insurance is considered a grudge purchase. We ultimately pay a premium every month towards an intangible benefit that will only be realised if and when a claim is made. And, in the case of insurance, that benefit is only realised when something horrible happens — another reason people shy away from examining this basket of products.
The best way to combat this innate psychological reasoning is through continued education, which can help people understand the purpose and the prolific impact that insurance will have on their lives should they ever need to claim. This requires contextualising the possible implications for an individual five to ten years from now, illustrating in real-world terms how different their situation could be in a worst-case scenario, both with and without appropriate insurance. This is a stark but effective means to demonstrate the need for adequate cover.
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