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What’s The Best Way To Make Your Money Grow?

Weigh up lump sum investing versus recurring premium investing.

James Twidale

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The stumbling block for many investors is the starting point. Many never get over the first hurdle which is to have money in the market.

Those that make the leap of faith, which is something everyone should do, then have to decide between lump sum investing versus a recurring premium investment.

The truth is that it’s often a trade-off most investors are not able to make. The reason we say this is because we have cash flow constraints which make it difficult to accumulate large enough lump sum assets.

We-recommend-tickRecommended: Want to Get Rich? Know How to Diversify Your Investments

Therefore, recurring investing is the only option. This is not entirely true because one could accumulate cash over time and then deploy lump sums.

The Pros and Cons

Let us look into the mechanics. The reality is that accumulating cash is difficult for most people. The temptation to spend money is real.

The other thing is that even if you were disciplined enough to save your cash and avoided the temptation of spending, you would generally underperform the equity market as the return of cash relative to equities is notably lower throughout almost every investment cycle in history. So, sitting on the side-lines is essentially a sure way to underperform the market most of the time.

There are certainly some positives to recurring investments. The benefits of rand cost averaging.

In a nutshell, when investing you are purchasing an asset or set of assets. Over time equity prices are expected to rise.

However, they do not do so in a linear or smooth fashion. They move wildly over the short term but tend to trend upward over full investment cycles.

When the prices are very volatile, investors with recurring investments are purchasing a small amount of equities/units every month. The price at which they purchase these equities/units will differ depending on the market price. So essentially over a year you get a basket of the same equities for which you paid a combination of prices, therefore your total base cost is the weighted average cost of the underlying assets you purchased.

This is essentially the issue at hand, does rand cost averaging lead to outperformance or underperformance relative to lump sum investing? Remember that lump sum investors purchase all their units/equities at day one and then look at their return at the end of the period, which is the difference between the market value and the initial cost.

In our research we looked at the time period between 31 December 1992 and 28 November 2014. We compared a R12 000 lump sum investment to a 12 x R1 000 recurring investment in a JSE Equity Portfolio/Index. We did this over a few different rolling periods to check if the results were consistent.

The answer was interesting but not surprising. In the periods we looked at, lump sum investors outperformed recurring investors about 65% of the time. This differs from rolling period to rolling period, but 65% of the time if you invested a lump sum you were better off

Lump Sums Outperform

We did a more practical example as well. We took the monthly All Share Index data from the last ten years. Again the comparison was between R1 000 invested every month for the entire period. This equals a total contribution of R120 000 over the period.

We then compare this to the return that would have been generated by investing R12 000 at the beginning of every year for the same ten year period. Again the total would have been R120 000. This test was then performed over a few ten year periods. The investor who invested R12 000 per annum as a lump sum outperformed the recurring investor over almost all the ten year periods analysed.

This test was done over 27 ten year periods, the lump sum investor was better off on 24 of the periods, which is a lot higher than the result of 65% which we calculated earlier.

This leads one to believe that the longer the period analysed, the more likely the lump sum investor is to outperform. However this may be a function of the data set we looked at and if we were to do the same analysis in more than one country we may get a different answer.

The reality of the situation may be a function of the timeframe we are considering.

RSA equities have had an annualised gross return over that period of around 18,2% per annum with very few long periods of negative returns.

What this means is that it would make sense that most of the time, lump sum investors have outperformed relative to their recurring counterparts who have been continually buying equities at higher prices over the period.

What we found interesting was common periods of outperformance for recurring investments. These were generally when markets were in a downward trajectory, such as 1994/1995, 2001 when the technology crash occurred, and 2008 during the global financial crisis.

Many of these periods did not last long and very soon after prices plummeted lump sum investors were again better off.

The Justification

To conclude, let us look at current valuation levels. By historical standards the local equity prices are at overpriced levels. That said, the global equity market keeps pushing to higher levels. If some market analysts are correct we should see a correction at some point. If the said correction were to occur it is likely that recurring investors would outperform their lump sum counterparts for a period of time.

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Both ways of investing can be justified and recurring investors may be saying that this is the time to purchase assets at a weighted average cost level to avoid large capital losses, but the stats tell us a different story.

If you have a lump sum, then deliberately phasing it into the market actually costs you money at least 65% of the time. So dive in and get to your desired asset mix sooner rather than later.

James Twidale is a portfolio manager and fund expert at 1st Fusion Asset Management, a specialist multi-asset portfolio manager which is part of the Genesis Capital group of companies.

Investing

The Best Way To Get Your Teenager To Start Investing Right Now

Jeff Rose advises a young fan on where to start his investment journey.

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In this video, Entrepreneur Network partner Jeff Rose talks about receiving a letter from a young investor, who is looking for advice on how to begin investing.

Rose talks about the act of actually doing the investing versus worrying about reading books or asking others about the process. Taking action gets the most results, since you are able to make mistakes and start the learning process. Taking action also leads to more experience, which is to say if you begin investing as a teen, you will be much more savvy about investing as a twenty-something.

In answering this young investor’s concern about investment direction – the fan hopes to balance short-term gain and long-term gain, as well as to establish some padding for a future business – Rose turns him in one specific direction: A Roth IRA. When he was younger, Rose didn’t even know what a stock was until far into his college years; during this time, he discovered the Roth IRA and learned of its compounding power, as well as the accessibility of an initial investment.

As another route, Rose also mentions starting a business. This path, Rose explains, will help you achieve the most return on investment.

Related: Making International Investing Simple And Transparent – CybiWealth Digital Platform

Click on the video to hear more tips for a younger investor.

This article was originally posted here on Entrepreneur.com.

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5 Insider Tips Every Trader Needs to Know

Here are five insider tips that every trader needs to know.

Ethan Featherly

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Like in every profession, there are a lot of figures circulating regarding how many forex traders actually make money, and how many traders lose more money than they earn. We are not going to launch into speculations that we can’t prove with accurate statistics. However, there is one thing we can say without citing any official sources: there are more people losing money than those earning.

Why? The answer can be found in the annals of human psychology. Some go into forex expecting to get rich overnight, while others do not (understandably) have the time to dedicate themselves fully to this activity. So what can you do, concretely, to join the group of people earning money? Here are five insider tips that every trader needs to know.

1. Choose a Methodology and Stick With It

Even before executing your first trade, you need to have a rough idea on what you will base your decisions on. In this sense, you must know what intel you will need to make the appropriate decision, like when to enter and exit a trade, which timeframes are the best (more on that later) and so on and so forth.

Some people are partial toward fundamental factors (foreign investments, inflation, unemployment rates, and other economic indicators), coupled with a chart, for executing a trade. Others prefer the raw numbers and stats of technical analysis.

But, whichever methodology you choose, make sure to be consistent and that it is adaptive, as there is no objective way to tell if one is truly better than the other. The most important thing to consider is whether or not your methodology and the strategies built around it are adaptive enough to keep up with the changing dynamics of the forex market.

Related: How Founder Of 27four Investment Managers Drove Transformation In The Industry

2. Always Calculate Your Expectancy

Expectancy is a formula that traders use to determine how reliable their trading system is. It involves going back in time to your previous trades (a journal will come in handy here), measuring how many traders were winners versus losers, and then finding out how profitable your winning trades were as opposed to how much money was lost after bad trades. The formula is as follows:

E=[1+(W/L) x P – 1, wherein W is the average winning trade, L represents Average Losing Trade, while P is Percentage Win Ratio.

3. Define Your Trading Goals and Build a Strategy Fitting of Your Personality

forex-tradingMost forex beginners come into the market thinking that they know everything that one could possibly know, without any sort of long term plan or concrete goals. This is the one mistake that eventually leads most traders to quit forex, because the reality of the market – and the trade itself – will hit them straight on sooner rather than later.

Therefore, the first thing you need to do is set a couple of goals. Start small and realistic at first – do not set yourself for winning a ridiculous amount of money in the first months because you will be sorely disappointed.

After setting the goals, you can start looking at various trading strategies and see which ones will help you achieve these goals and, most importantly, whether or not they are a good fit for your personality.

Some helpful questions to ask in this case are in the lines of ‘’Do I feel comfortable holding positions overnight?’’ or ‘’How much risk am I willing to assume for a given trade?’’, ‘’Am I more comfortable following a trend or betting against it?’’, ‘’Will I trade to gain some additional income, or full time?’’. Another equally viable method which will help you asses your strengths and weaknesses is doing a personal SWOT analysis.

4. Make use of Multi Time Frame Analysis

Regardless of whether you are a swing, day or long term position trader, it is highly recommended you always approach trading in a top-down fashion. This technique involves starting with a higher time frame chart and gradually zooming down to your current trading time frame chart. By doing this, you can get a ‘’big picture’’ view of the price action.

This tip is important because many traders commit the grave error of building their trading decisions around the time frame in which they are currently trading. For instance, when a trader sees a hammer candlestick pattern on a five-hour chart, they push forward with the trade without considering what might happen in the following time frame. What you are doing here is similar to a game of chess – you have to think a few steps ahead and choose your forex trading products and tools wisely in order to land a successful trade.

5. Do Not Use More Indicators Than Necessary

Indicators are simply visual representations of market realities that show things such as price movements, patterns and the like. As useful as they are, after trading for a while, you will soon realise that at some point they become quite counterproductive.

Many traders will tell you that the only indicator that you need is price, and everything else is there just to make one understand how the market got to that point. And since succeeding in the forex market is mostly about getting in on a trend before anyone else spots it, you can probably guess why over-crowding your monitor with indicators is not such a good idea.

Conclusion

Whatever some might tell you, forex is not a walk in the park. Like everything in life, it takes hard work and dedication to reach the point where you can state without doubt that you have achieved excellence. However, even the most dedicated and hard-working traders need a push in the right direction in the form of some lesser known insider tips that only traders will know. Hopefully, the tips in this article will provide you with the insight necessary to take your trading efforts to the next level.

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Time For An Alternative Investment Approach

The age of high-risk, high-reward thinking may be all but done, for now.

Fedgroup

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For years the investment formula applied by investors has been to craft a diversified portfolio of assets weighted more towards equities. It made sense to build a foundation on safe, low-risk, low-return capital preservation investments and, depending on your age, allocate a relatively larger portion of your investable income into higher risk, higher return equities.

But is this justified in the local context? While global equity markets have enjoyed a decade-long bull run following the 2008-2009 financial crisis, consistently delivering 10% to 15% annual returns, the JSE has been a perennial under-performer over the last four to five years.

Volatility

Despite this fact, significant investor capital has continued to flow into local equities, either directly into stocks or via unit trusts, ETFs and endowments.  And now amid more volatile global economic conditions, where global indexes have come off record highs in early 2018, local equities are still projected to underperform in the medium-term as the market correction that many predicted gathers momentum.

Related: Investing In Wealth-Generating Assets

This shift is symptomatic of the volatility that currently characterises global markets as Brexit plays out, trade wars intensify, and widespread socio-political instability creates systemic economic risks. Yet, investors are still being advised to put their money into higher-risk vehicles.

Further compounding the issue is the fact that the country’s exchanges are dominated by a few large entities, which are all negatively impacted by the country’s dire economic situation. This means local investors must also contend with concentrated risk.

Outdated thinking

Despite these threats, many financial advisors have stuck to the traditional investment playbook by telling clients to “stay calm and remain invested in equities.” But given the prevailing market conditions, investors can realise better returns from investment opportunities that break from this conventional approach.

Returns from various fixed-rate investments, for example, have and continue to outperform equity investments, and do so without the associated risks.

While reducing risk is not necessarily a key concern for naturally risk-included entrepreneurs, when it comes to investing our hard-earned money we have the power to manage that risk. So, forget the old, pervasive attitude of “no risk, no reward.” It’s dated and, quite frankly, unwarranted.

The new reality is that fixed-term, low-risk investments have become among the best-performing asset classes — a fact that is tearing at the foundations of conventional investment advice. Entrenched beliefs must therefore be challenged, especially when investments that offer security can match or outperform high-risk options such as equities.

So, what are our options, given that fixed-rate investment options currently abound? Well, before diving into a vanilla offering from a bank, consider what your capital is secured against.

Forward-looking investments

forward-looking-investments

Banks generate their returns by lending out pooled deposits in the form of loans and credit. Some of this lending is secured, much of it is not. This can introduce risk into your investment, because the ability of debtors to repay debt is often compromised in a struggling economy, and bad debts will impact the returns that a bank can offer depositors.

Forward-looking secured investments, on the other hand, offer a set rate for five years and are secured against a variety of assets, like Fedgroup’s Secured Investment in participation bonds, which removes significant risk from the equation. These types of collective investment schemes are also regulated to protect investors.

Related: Balancing Business And Investment Risks

While it may not be prudent to completely disinvest from the local stock market, there is a case to be made to be more circumspect with future investments, matured investments, or that portion of your portfolio that is earmarked for reallocation. With this money, an investment that delivers both capital security and a high, fixed rate of return might well prove more attractive than the traditional wisdom of local equities.

The guaranteed, low-risk returns currently offered by fixed-rate investments have transformed these products from fringe options into mainstream investment vehicles that can no longer be ignored. With the chance to outperform the average equity investor, isn’t it time to rethink your conventional investment approach and consider the lucrative and, more importantly in such volatile times, secure opportunities offered by these alternative investment options?

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