Connect with us

Investing

Will the Market Crash Again?

The debate about whether we are heading for the second dip in a W-shaped economic recovery, and more importantly accompanied by a second market collapse, has never been conclusively answered.

Eamonn Ryan

Published

on

CreativeCostCutting

Anxiety is growing among investors that equity markets may be headed for another plunge as governments grapple with how to reduce budget deficits and repay government debt.

The US Federal Reserve’s so-called quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programme was meant to stimulate consumer demand, but instead much of it may have gone into risk assets such as commodities and global equity markets. The Fed’s $600 billion programme to buy Treasury debt has helped investors divert funds to commodities and equities, creating a bubble in those assets, which is now starting to burst.

The most positive view is that the ending of the Fed’s QE2 programme will prompt a modest 10% decline in US equities — which is what happened at the end of the first round of Fed buying.

However, the chief protagonist of the W-shaped recovery has all along been Dr Nouriel Roubini who warned more than 18 months ago of the “high probability“ of a second leg of the recession, an “outside chance” of a U-shaped recovery and only a “20% chance” of a V-shaped recovery.

He argues that actions such as QE by the US government and bailouts in Europe are only delaying the inevitable. His words are not taken lightly, because Roubini is most famous for having predicted the 2007/8 recession.

Recently, the US bears have been interpreting several economic indicators as the start. Commodities have been at the forefront of the selling so far, as May saw an end to the big rallies in hard assets. Gold has dropped slightly, while silver crashed 30% in its worst fall since 1980. Oil, which was until recently worrying investors with its sharp ascent, fell around 15%. Copper, known as the ‘metal with a PhD‘ for its ability to act as a predictor for the economy given its wide-scale industrial applications, hit a five-month low. The growing concern is that stocks have priced in an overly optimistic economic path.

PIGS hog the debt trough

Dominated by global debt levels, primarily in the PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), but also the US budget deficit, David Gracie, of Investec Bank, says, “there is a lot of tension because the market does not see how these debts are going to be paid off.”

A year and a half ago Roubini said that one of the most crucial questions to be faced will be the timing of the exit strategy from various stimulus measures. “Those policies were necessary to avoid an actual depression, but if kept too long raise the danger that large budget deficits will lead to renewed inflation and recession,” he said.

These policies are still in place. The challenge for governments is to create a self-sustaining recovery, says Gracie, but until then they are committed to stimulating global demand. This also limits their ability to reduce budget deficits.

Rob Porter, Standard Bank director and head of Foreign Exchange Sales, says:  “Renewed concerns about the lingering sovereign debt crises in Europe best explain the pullback in the euro, and as the dollar recovered, the speculative element in the commodity market started to reverse. At this stage it is difficult to determine whether early May’s sudden correction will be sustained. However, if the Fed starts adopting a more hawkish tone over the coming months, then we would also expect the dollar recovery to continue and for commodity prices to correct further.”

Nothing here to scare investors off

Craig Pheiffer, general manager: Absa Investments, rejects the idea that stocks are pricing in an overly optimistic economic path — in South Africa at least.

“Absa’s view is that there will not be a double dip. Granted, one cannot discount the many risks, especially the European debt crisis, but with a global average of 4,1% GDP growth expected this year, followed by 4,5% next, the future valuations of global exchanges don’t seem as expensive as they were. The JSE still has some upward momentum left in it as average earnings of about 25% are expected to come through.

“For instance, the increased valuations of commodity companies come off a very low base and though they doubled last year there is still some substantial growth left in them as good earnings come through,” explains Pheiffer.

What is causing investors in the US to jump out of risk investments is “the huge speculative element lying on top of their markets, which is pushing prices up and down. Absa expects the average annual prices of the top six commodities to be higher this year than last, and higher next year than this.

“So any collapse of stock markets may be a combination of the withdrawal of stimulus measures and the withdrawal of that speculative element — but there will still be other support measures in place and governments will ensure the withdrawal is done at a measured pace.

“A 10% pullback in equity prices is possible under these conditions but a dramatic collapse in the market is not the base case scenario,” he adds.

Before becoming a financial writer and freelance journalist in 1997, Eamonn Ryan was a legal adviser, company secretary and alternate director at listed company Cashbuild Limited from 1988 to 1997. Since becoming a financial writer, he has focused on the business and financial sectors, as well as personal finance, writing for Finweek, The Star Business Report, Sunday Times Business Times, Business Day, Mail & Guardian, Entrepreneur, Corporate Research Foundation (which brings out a series of books each year ranking SA’s best employers and best managers), as well as a host of once-off and annual publications such as ‘Enterprising Women’ and ‘Portfolio of Black Business’. He also writes media releases, inhouse magazines and sustainability or annual financial reports for various South African corporates and financial services groups, including the Ernst & Young annual M&A book.

Advertisement
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Investing

(Infographic) The 10 Things You Should Cover In Every Investment Pitch

If you want to wow potential investors, you need to cover your bases.

Matthew McCreary

Published

on

investment-pitch-elevator-sales-pitch

If you’ve ever watched Entrepreneur’s original series, Elevator Pitch, then you’ve probably seen smart founders make dumb mistakes while pitching their ideas to potential investors. They might flub an answer or get tongue-tied, or they might just be a little boring. Other times, you might notice that something seemed off about a pitch, but you can’t quite put your finger on why.

Investors are gambling every time they put money into a new project or idea. Your job when pitching is to prove to them that you’re worth the risk. That means you’ll need to not only show them the possible upside of what they have to gain, but also be clear about what they could possibly expect to lose and their odds. In other words, you need to give them a holistic view of what you do, not just the one good idea.

You might have pitched an investor yourself and thought you crushed it, only to hear that the investor isn’t interested. If that’s the case, there’s a chance the pitch was missing one of 10 essential elements.

This infographic by Buffalo 7 breaks down 10 slides you should have in your next investment pitch deck. If you’re not presenting formally, though, you can still keep track of these aspects in your head and make sure you cover each one. They include:

  1. The vision, where you concisely explain your idea.
  2. The problem. Why is your vision necessary or helpful?
  3. The opportunity. What is the market size, and how can you position yourself to earn a share of it?

Related: How To Pitch Your Business, Product Or Idea To Industry Experts

This is just the start, though. Check out the infographic below to see the rest of the slides you need when pitching investors.

1541174287_investment-pitch-infographic

This article was originally posted here on Entrepreneur.com.

Continue Reading

Investing

‘Shark Tank’ Investors Reveal Top 5 Tips To Make Your Business Famous

Is your business worthy of fame? If so, pay attention to what the Sharks have to say …

Eric 'ERock' Christopher

Published

on

Shark Tank

Shark Tank enters its tenth season as popular as ever. Over the past decade, millions of people have watched fascinated as entrepreneurs pitched their business ideas and startups in the hopes of winning an investment and support from self-made millionaires and billionaires.

The multi-Emmy® Award-winning reality-based show has had a tremendous impact on the business world and has been a major influence on the increased popularity of becoming an entrepreneur. Over the years, the show has evolved into one of the world’s top platforms to launch a business and recently reached an astonishing $100 million in deals offered in the Tank.

I was recently invited to attend a private event hosted on the set of Shark Tank to celebrate their 10th season and met with all the Sharks and most of the guest Sharks for the current season. This year’s guest list includes luminaries:

  • Charles Barkley, Hall of Fame NBA star and TV analyst
  • Alex Rodriguez, legendary baseball player and businessman
  • Rohan Oza, an iconic brand builder and marketing expert
  • Sara Blakely, founder and owner of SPANX brand
  • Matt Higgins, the co-founder and CEO of RSE Ventures and vice chairman of the Miami Dolphins
  • Bethenny Frankel, TV celebrity, author, and founder of Skinnygirl brand
  • Jamie Siminoff, the CEO of RING, who rejected an investment offer in season 5, but went on to sell his company to Amazon for a whopping $1 billion.

My better half was also invited, and we arrived promptly on time at Studio 24 inside of Sony Pictures Studios in Culver City, CA. We were greeted by the cordial staff who informed us that the Sharks were still filming the last takes of the day. After several minutes, we were invited to chat with the Sharks on the main floor where nervous entrepreneurs excitedly pitch their companies to the investors under the bright lights of the studio set.

I was curious to know what excited the Sharks the most about their tenth season and what they believed to be the best advice for an entrepreneur to help make their business famous.

1. Create an ingenious product

When asked, Lori Greiner said, “It’s a mix, right? Of smart marketing and ingenious product. For example, Scrub Daddy was a technology. So, taking that one sponge, which was revolutionary, changed the whole sponge arena. We now have, to date, 20 different SKUs, and we have 30,000 new retail locations and 170 million in sales. That’s what takes it from one idea to a global brand.”

Of course, skillfully promoting your product on a platform like QVC is another excellent way to make your business famous. The day after the Scrub Daddy episode aired, Greiner helped CEO Aaron Krause sell their entire inventory of 42,000 sponges in less than seven minutes on QVC.

Related: 6 Great Tips For A Successful Shark Tank Pitch

2. Leverage social media marketing

barbara-corcoran

During my chat with Bethenny Frankel, she stressed, “Social networking is so important. Also being a little bit disruptive now … and you have to be creative. You have to be creative. The President was the most disruptive candidate that there’s probably ever been in history. He got people’s attention, and young entrepreneurs need to get people’s attention in some way. So be a little disruptive.”

Matt Higgins responded, “I’d say that you have to understand social and digital marketing. You can’t survive unless you understand Instagram, Snapchat or all the tools out there. You have to be contemporary.”

Barbara Corcoran claimed, “Every one of us successful entrepreneurs, for the last two years, were phenomenal at social media. It’s true. No exceptions.”

No smart entrepreneur will deny the power of social media when it comes to making your company famous. With more than 2 billion people worldwide using some form of social media, any business can put their business in front of a large audience, especially if they can create content that goes viral.

3. Build a community

Daymond John stressed the value of building a community. “You’ve got to build a community,” stated John. “Nobody needs to buy anything new in this world. They only buy it because there’s some form of community and/or need that you are supplying for them.”

John speaks from experience. He built a successful clothing empire by creating a vast community of his own via his clothing brand FUBU. John wisely invested in celebrity endorsements, making him an early pioneer of modern influencer marketing.

If you lack the resources to build your own community from scratch, you can leverage the power of others. Partnering with influencers who have cultivated their own communities allows you to introduce your product or service to larger audiences. In fact, some consider Shark Tank to be the world’s largest business influencer platform.

4. Devise a publicity hook to win earned media coverage

Barbara Corcoran also said, “I’d say you need a publicity hook. Some hook, angle or gimmick that grabs the attention unfairly from your competitors.”

Remember, Shark Tank is a unique combination of reality television, business acumen, and entertainment. Doing something unique, different, or disruptive can get you significant media attention and abundant free publicity… especially if you’re able to leverage that publicity and captivate the show’s producers, who decide your fate as to whether you’ll appear on the show.

Regardless if you want to appear on Shark Tank or not, being featured in the media is a way to differentiate your business from the competition and reach a broader audience. Be creative and willing to take educated risks when it comes to getting noticed by the media. You should always be actively building relationships with media representatives and ask for their insights when formulating your plan.

Related: Shark Tank Funded Start-up Native Decor’s Founder on Investment, Mentorship And Dreaming Big

5. Know your strengths and stay focused

When I asked for billionaire Mark Cuban’s insights, he thoughtfully replied, “Knowing your unique advantages, play to that, and your strengths. And focus. You know, what happens is very often people start with an idea, get a little bit of traction, then it gets hard. And when it gets hard, they start looking for other things to do as opposed to playing to their strengths. Because businesses aren’t supposed to be easy. You know, if they were easy everybody would already be rich, and we’d all be sitting on a beach somewhere. And so, when it gets tough, you gotta dig in and work hard. I’d say the final thing I’d add is that sales cures all. There’s never been a business that succeeded without sales. So, if you focus on selling … if you’re able to sell … and that’s something that is one of your core competencies, then you’ll be okay.”

These are wise words from one of the world’s few billionaires.

This article was originally posted here on Entrepreneur.com.

Continue Reading

Investing

The Best Way To Get Your Teenager To Start Investing Right Now

Jeff Rose advises a young fan on where to start his investment journey.

Published

on

teenagers-investment

In this video, Entrepreneur Network partner Jeff Rose talks about receiving a letter from a young investor, who is looking for advice on how to begin investing.

Rose talks about the act of actually doing the investing versus worrying about reading books or asking others about the process. Taking action gets the most results, since you are able to make mistakes and start the learning process. Taking action also leads to more experience, which is to say if you begin investing as a teen, you will be much more savvy about investing as a twenty-something.

In answering this young investor’s concern about investment direction – the fan hopes to balance short-term gain and long-term gain, as well as to establish some padding for a future business – Rose turns him in one specific direction: A Roth IRA. When he was younger, Rose didn’t even know what a stock was until far into his college years; during this time, he discovered the Roth IRA and learned of its compounding power, as well as the accessibility of an initial investment.

As another route, Rose also mentions starting a business. This path, Rose explains, will help you achieve the most return on investment.

Related: Making International Investing Simple And Transparent – CybiWealth Digital Platform

Click on the video to hear more tips for a younger investor.

This article was originally posted here on Entrepreneur.com.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

SPOTLIGHT

Advertisement

Recent Posts

Follow Us

Entrepreneur-Newsletters
*
We respect your privacy. 
* indicates required.
Advertisement

Trending